Does the human race have a 50/50 chance of surviving the 21st century?

I have added a new book to my “hope to read soon” list.  It is titled, “Our Final Century,” by Martin Reese.  (Actually, I will probably read Our Final Hour, also by Martin Reese, instead.)  According to Amazon.com, “Sir Martin Rees FRS is the most eminent cosmologist in Britain, the Astronomer Royal and Professor at Cambridge. He lives in Cambridge.”

What he says in the book is quite distrubing.  Essentially, he puts the human race’s chances of surviving the 21st century at 50/50.

And I have to say, 208 pages in to Thomas Friedman’s ‘Hot, Flat, and Crowded,’ a 50% chance of human self-destruction in the 21st century is not implausible.

Here is the Amazon.com editorial review:

“‘It matters that one should understand the provenance of this important and disturbing book. It is not another futurological diatribe saying that the end is nigh, but a lucid, calm, profoundly well-informed work by a distinguished scientist, whose humanity - evidenced by a serious ethical commitment and a quiet sense of humour- balances the dispassionate logic with which he surveys his subject: the multitude of threats facing humanity in the twenty-first century from error and terror in the nuclear, biological and environmental spheres.’ Literary Review”

James Lovelock says the human race’s only hope is to adapt - fixing global warming will just make it worse

I have always felt that James Lovelock was on to something with his Gaia theory of Earth, which as The Daily Galaxy states, “the Earth is essentially a complex interacting system that can be thought of as a single organism.

But, in this case, I hope that he is wrong.  According to his latest thoughts on global warming, it is really too late to do anything about it, and the “affluenza” that Thomas Friedman emphasizes in his book, ‘Hot, Flat, and Crowded‘ has taken over the developing world is starting to affect the planet.

Here is the kicker, not only is it too late to do anything about it, according to Lovelock, doing too much to fix it might actually make it worse.  Essentially, he says we should be more responsible for the sake of it and just learn how to adapt to what is about to happen to us as a race of people.

It also brings to mind a comedy sketch I saw by George Carlin when he said something like:

“The planet has been through a lot worse than us.
Been through all kinds of things worse than us. Been through
earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar
flares, sun spots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the
poles…hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and
asteroids and meteors, worlwide floods, tidal waves, worldwide fires,
erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages…And we think some plastic
bags, and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference? The
planet…the planet…the planet isn’t going anywhere. WE ARE!” Here is the whole thing, but in typical Carlin fashion, it includes a lot of profanity.

The Status of “Spaceship Earth”

It’s a horrible catch 22 situation that leaves only a very small gap for any joy at all. If we continue to do nothing (note the use of the word continue), then we will doom ourselves. If we do do something, like a massive cut back in the emission of carbon in to our atmosphere, Lovelock believes that we would further damage Earth.

“Any economic downturn or planned cutback in fossil fuel use, which lessened aerosol density, would intensify the heating,” Lovelock will say, in a lecture to the Royal Society today. “If there were a 100 per cent cut in fossil fuel combustion it might get hotter not cooler. We live in a fool’s climate. We are damned if we continue to burn fuel and damned if we stop too suddenly.”

Three books for Christmas - Don’t Blink When you are Engulfed in Flames and it is Hot, Flat, and Crowded

My wonderful family was kind enough to buy me three books this Christmas.

1. Hot, Flat, and Crowded by Thomas Friedman
2. When you are Engulfed in Flames by David Sedaris
3. Blink by Malcolm Gladwell

The later two books have not arrived yet, so I started with Hot, Flat, and Crowded.

This is how it starts:

German engineering, Swiss Innovation, American nothing.

-Advertising slogan used on a billboard in South Africa by Daimler to promote the smart “forfour” compact car

Pennies From Space: Our Economy Needs A Miracle… Like In Science Fiction

I hate to sound alarmist, but I am pretty good at it.  I don’t think the average person realizes how bad of shape our economy is really in.  This article form Pennies From Space takes a tongue-in-cheek kind of look at science fiction for answers, but there is some truth to it.  If you look all through history, it is the country that implements the latest technologies that rule the world.  For Genghis Khan, it was the bow and arrow, for 20th Century America, it was the Atom bomb.

The subject was covered pretty well in Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond.  When a country’s economy is suffering, like America is now, it makes that country vulnerable to the tortoise waiting close behind, and this Earth has no shortage of emerging economies.  I predict that the next advance in technology will predict the country that takes the reigns of the world.  It could still be, mostly will be, and hopefully soon will be the grand old U.S.A., but we better put our butts in gear and get it done.  It seems most likely to come from Green technology, since that is what Al Gore, Thomas Friedman, Barack Obama, and others are pushing for.

Pennies From Space: Our Economy Needs A Miracle… Like In Science Fiction
Don’t panic! Sure, our economy is crappier than a crap-monster attacking a crap factory. But that’s the time when you should look to the future. Our economy could be transformed at any moment, by developments like new technology — or first contact with an alien species. And you can prepare for this bright future by reading science fiction, which is full of amazing stories of economic miracles. Prepare for our super hopeful future by reading about all the ways our economy could be revolutionized overnight!